01
Executive Summary
The Redcliffe Peninsula is one of South East Queensland's most structurally sound property markets. Positioned 29–35km north of Brisbane CBD, connected by rail since 2016, and bounded by Moreton Bay to the east, the Peninsula offers a defined geographic supply constraint that underpins long-term price support.
Across the seven suburbs analysed, median house prices range from $879,000–$888,000 (Kippa-Ring) to $1,500,000–$1,620,000 (Newport), with annual growth averaging 13.9% and long-run average annual growth confirmed at 13.0–21.4% depending on suburb. Five independent data sources — Cotality/PropertyValue, YIP/CoreLogic, SQM Research, SuburbTrends ValuePRO, and QGSO — all confirm the same structural picture.
The Peninsula is undergoing a structural rerating — moving from an affordable retirement destination toward a lifestyle-prestige corridor with genuine infrastructure backing. The $19.5M Suttons Beach Pavilion (construction commenced March 2026), One Redcliffe (70% Stage 1 sold), Newport's confirmed $1.62M house median with +21.39% average annual growth, and the Brisbane 2032 Olympics catalyst are collectively elevating the prestige ceiling and compressing supply.
Rental conditions are critically constrained. Kippa-Ring (4021) has just 7 total rental listings as of May 2026 — down 56% year-on-year. Vacancy rates across all three postcodes sit at 0.57–0.62% and are falling. The renter proportion is projected to rise 6–7 percentage points across 4019 and 4020 while supply remains at historic lows.
Key risk flags: Newport unit growth stalling (+4.44%, -2.76% quarterly) while houses surge at +20%. Scarborough quarterly growth -1.37% — short-term pause. MCG Building Index flags Moreton Bay North at 4.32% stock impact — 4th nationally. Kippa-Ring zoned for only +6% population growth over 25 years.
May 2026 — Edition 2 Position
This edition builds on the April 2026 baseline with three additional independent data sources: SQM Research extended data (asking prices, rental listings, demographics), SuburbTrends ValuePRO Risk Index, and QGSO population projections. All five sources confirm the same structural thesis.
SuburbTrends ValuePRO: Redcliffe SA3 — one of 7 SA3s nationally at Risk Score 1/5. Units ranked 1st nationally. New to this edition.
QGSO: 141,539 new dwellings needed in Moreton Bay LGA by 2046. Kippa-Ring +6% only — zoning constraint. New to this edition.
Kim McLoughlin, Place Redcliffe Peninsula — consulting contributor acknowledging local market context and Peninsula-specific expertise across both editions.
03
Month-on-Month Comparison — April 2026 → May 2026
April 2026 (Edition 1): Established baseline using publicly available data across realestate.com.au, PropTrack, YIP, Cotality, and CoreLogic. Ranges shown where sources diverged. Consulting contributor: Kim McLoughlin, Place Redcliffe Peninsula.
May 2026 (Edition 2): Triangulated using verified PropertyValue/Cotality (direct extract 6 May 2026), YIP/CoreLogic (12 months to February 2026), SQM Research extended data (7 May 2026), SuburbTrends ValuePRO (March 2026 edition), and QGSO population projections (2023 edition). Three new data dimensions not available in Edition 1.
| Suburb |
Apr 2026 House Median |
May 2026 House Median |
Movement |
Apr 2026 Growth Range |
May 2026 Growth |
Apr 2026 DOM |
May 2026 DOM |
Apr 2026 Yield |
May 2026 Yield |
Signal |
Newport |
$1.45M–$1.65M |
$1.50M–$1.62M |
→ Stable |
+11.5–22.2% |
+15.1–20.0% |
44 days |
47–68 days |
2.8–3.1% |
2.7–3.1% |
Prestige hold |
Woody Point |
$994K–$1.1M |
$1.0M–$1.03M |
↑ Rising |
+16.9–29.4% |
+19.0–20.7% |
Data pending |
25–38 days |
Limited |
3.33% |
Confirmed surge |
Margate |
$850K–$990.5K |
$980K–$998K |
↑ Rising |
+3.7–15.2% |
+15.6–17.7% |
26 days |
24–42 days |
3.8% |
3.52% |
Lower floor confirmed |
Clontarf |
$920K–$960K |
$932K–$949K |
→ Stable |
+12.8–13.4% |
+11.3–12.3% |
21 days |
21 days |
3.8% |
3.76% |
DOM confirmed fast |
Redcliffe |
$875K–$950K |
$921K–$930K |
↑ Floor rising |
+7.7–15.9% |
+13.7–14.1% |
36 days |
20–41 days |
3.4% |
3.5–3.6% |
Floor hardened |
Kippa-Ring |
$830K–$900K |
$879K–$888K |
↑ Rising |
+10.8–13.9% |
+13.4–14.5% |
17–18 days |
17 days |
4.0% |
3.95% |
DOM sustained |
Scarborough |
$1.15M–$1.21M |
$1.15M |
→ Stable/softening |
+9.5–15.6% |
+7.2–9.0% |
36 days |
29–36 days |
3.3% |
3.19–3.20% |
Watch — qtr -1.37% |
New in Edition 2 — Not in April
⊕ SuburbTrends ValuePRO — Risk Score 1/5 nationally (houses). Units ranked 1st of 316 SA3s.
⊕ SQM Extended Data — Asking prices, rental listings (7 in 4021), rents, yields, demographics
⊕ QGSO 2023 Edition — SA2-level projections, dwelling demand, 65+ cohort growth
⊕ YIP Average Annual Growth — Long-run CAGR confirmed for all 7 suburbs (not in PropertyValue)
⊕ Vendor Discounting — PropertyValue data for all 7 suburbs. Kippa-Ring at -2.69% lowest.
Key Movements April → May
↑ Margate floor lifted — April low end was $850K. May shows $980K–$998K. Lower bound hardened significantly.
↑ Redcliffe growth confirmed — April showed 7.7–15.9%. May narrows to 13.7–14.1% — more consistent.
⚠ Scarborough quarterly -1.37% — Not visible in April. Watch for sustained or recovering in June.
⚠ Newport units -2.76% quarterly — Unit softness confirmed. Houses remain strong at +9.27% quarterly.
✓ Clontarf 21-day DOM confirmed — Three sources agree. Not a data anomaly.
Prepared By
John Kenneally
Systems Architect · Market Intelligence
Consulting Contributor
Kim McLoughlin
Place Redcliffe Peninsula · kimmcloughlin@placepg.com.au
Local market context and Peninsula-specific expertise across Editions 1 and 2
Classification
Confidential
Not for public distribution
"This is market intelligence for informational purposes. It does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. Consult a licensed professional before making financial decisions."
03
Suburb Comparison — Houses Fully Triangulated · YIP/CoreLogic (Feb 2026) + PropertyValue/Cotality (May 2026)
| Suburb |
PC |
Median Price Range |
12-Mo Growth |
Avg Annual |
Rent/Wk |
Yield |
DOM Range |
Sales 12m |
Vendor Disc. |
Profile |
Woody Point |
4019 |
$1.00M–$1.03M |
+19.0–20.7% |
+14.13% |
$620 |
3.3–3.4% |
25–38 days |
96–98 |
-6.48% |
Top Growth |
Margate |
4019 |
$980K–$998K |
+15.6–17.7% |
+15.05% |
$620–$625 |
3.3–3.5% |
24–42 days |
138–146 |
-4.75% |
High Growth |
Newport |
4020 |
$1.50M–$1.62M |
+15.1–20.0% |
+21.39% |
$800–$850 |
2.7–3.1% |
47–68 days |
193–206 |
-4.74% |
Prestige |
Redcliffe |
4020 |
$921K–$930K |
+13.7–14.1% |
+14.09% |
$625–$640 |
3.5–3.6% |
20–41 days |
163–164 |
-5.33% |
Liquid Hub |
Kippa-Ring |
4021 |
$879K–$888K |
+13.4–14.5% |
+14.00% |
$630 |
3.95% |
17 days |
170 |
-2.69% |
Best Yield |
Clontarf |
4019 |
$932K–$949K |
+11.3–12.3% |
+14.59% |
$645–$650 |
3.6–3.8% |
21 days |
152–157 |
-4.78% |
Entry Lifestyle |
Scarborough |
4020 |
$1.15M |
+7.2–9.0% |
+13.15% |
$680 |
3.19–3.20% |
29–36 days |
161–162 |
-3.95% |
Prestige |
Units — Fully Triangulated · YIP/CoreLogic (Feb 2026) + PropertyValue/Cotality (May 2026)
| Suburb |
Postcode |
Median Price |
12-Mo Growth |
Qtrly Growth |
Avg Annual |
Rent/Wk |
Yield |
DOM |
Sales 12m |
Stock |
Vendor Disc. |
Newport |
4020 |
$1,410,000 |
+4.44% |
-2.76% |
N/A |
$800 |
3.18% |
70 days |
23 |
16 |
-4.74% |
Woody Point |
4019 |
$907K–$919K |
+31.5–32.6% |
+6.71% |
+15.83% |
$590–$600 |
3.6% |
42–69 days |
50–51 |
34 |
-4.70% |
Kippa-Ring |
4021 |
$592K–$600K |
+20.0–20.2% |
+3.05% |
+18.62% |
$525–$550 |
4.54% |
15 days |
53–56 |
26 |
-3.70% |
Scarborough |
4020 |
$945K–$960K |
+9.9–11.3% |
+0.79% |
+13.26% |
$610–$615 |
3.52–3.58% |
40–42 days |
97–102 |
74 |
-5.69% |
Redcliffe |
4020 |
$745K–$779K |
+12.0–18.0% |
+6.68% |
+12.15% |
$573–$600 |
3.85–4.0% |
25–48 days |
144–147 |
75 |
-3.27% |
Clontarf |
4019 |
$745K–$751K |
+12.9–27.3% |
-1.97% |
+14.87% |
$520–$528 |
3.6–3.89% |
24 days |
35–52 |
N/A |
N/A |
Margate |
4019 |
$775K–$780K |
+14.0–14.7% |
-6.62% |
+9.83% |
$515–$520 |
3.4–3.64% |
25–40 days |
41–45 |
16 |
-2.63% |
Data complete — all 7 suburbs fully triangulated across two independent Cotality sources. YIP/CoreLogic (12 months to February 2026) and PropertyValue/Cotality (extracted May 2026). Key findings: Kippa-Ring units at 15-day DOM is the fastest unit market on the Peninsula. Newport units at +4.44% annual with -2.76% quarterly signals a repricing — house growth at +20% is masking unit caution. Margate units showed -6.62% quarterly — watch. DOM methodology note: YIP/CoreLogic measures list-to-unconditional; PropertyValue likely measures list-to-settlement. The 10–25 day gap across all suburbs is systematic, not a data error — both ranges are retained. Clontarf unit growth flag: YIP shows +12.88%, PropertyValue shows +27.29% — both Cotality, different data periods. Use the long-run average annual (+14.87%) as the more reliable figure. Average annual growth is YIP-only (long-run compounding rate, not available on PropertyValue).
04
Suburb Intelligence Profiles
All data triangulated across YIP/CoreLogic (Feb 2026) + PropertyValue/Cotality (May 2026) + SQM Research (May 2026)
House Median
$879–888K
PV $879K · YIP $888K
House Growth
+13.4–14.5%
Avg annual: +14.00%
House Yield
3.95%
$630/wk · 170 sales
Unit Median
$592–600K
+20% annual
Unit Yield
4.54%
Avg annual: +18.62%
House DOM
17 days
Fastest on Peninsula
Population9,745 (2021)
Median Age43 yrs (youngest)
Owner-Occ.62.0% (2021)
Investment case: Kippa-Ring is the Peninsula's standout balanced investment — strongest yield (3.95% houses, 4.54% units), fastest DOM (17 days houses, 15 days units), and the only suburb where households are primarily couples with children in a trades-dominated occupation profile. This demographic composition — younger (median age 43), working families, lower income than prestige suburbs — creates genuine, non-speculative rental demand. Combined with 7 total rental listings across the entire postcode (SQM, May 2026), the supply-demand position is the most extreme on the Peninsula.
Population declined -0.46% 2016–2021 — QGSO projects only +6% growth over 25 years. This is a zoning constraint, not demand collapse. Avg annual growth at 14.00% (houses) and 18.62% (units) confirms sustained long-run appreciation despite flat population.
Annual Growth
+13.4%
Houses
Gross Yield
4.00%
$620/wk rent
Unit Median
$592K
+20.22% annual
House Median
$1.00–1.03M
YIP confirmed
House Growth
+19.0–20.7%
Avg annual: +14.13%
House Yield
3.33%
$620/wk · 98 sales
Unit Median
$907–919K
+31.5% annual
Unit Yield
3.60%
Avg annual: +15.83%
House Qtrly
+2.63%
DOM: 25–38 days
Population4,548 (2021) +2.9%
Median Age53 yrs (2021)
Owner-Occ.57.6% (2021)
Investment case: Woody Point holds the highest single-year house growth rate on the Peninsula at 19.0–20.7%, with units at an extraordinary 31.45–32.58%. Both long-run averages (houses +14.13%, units +15.83%) confirm this is not a one-year aberration. The suburb sits at the tip of the Peninsula with a fixed waterfront boundary — no new land. On 98 house sales (the thinnest house market on the Peninsula), even modest demand shifts produce outsized price movements.
Smallest house sales volume on Peninsula — percentage growth is amplified by low volume. Capital play only — yield at 3.33% (houses) is below Peninsula average. Unit DOM range of 42–69 days is wide, reflecting thin buyer pool at the $907K–$919K unit price point.
House Median
$980–998K
Both sources confirmed
House Growth
+15.6–17.7%
Avg annual: +15.05%
House Yield
3.52%
$625/wk · 146 sales
Population
7,575
ABS 2021 · +2.3%
Median Age
45 yrs
Owner-occ: 56.7%
Unit Growth
+14.0%
Avg annual · $775K
Investment case: Margate's 15.05% average annual house growth is the highest long-run rate on the Peninsula. YIP and PropertyValue agree tightly on price ($980K–$998K) — this is one of the most data-consistent suburbs in the cohort. The 4019 postcode 2-bed unit rent growth of +31% YoY (SQM) is concentrated here — Margate has only 16 units on market, the thinnest unit supply of any Peninsula suburb.
Unit quarterly growth: -6.62% (YIP). Single quarter dip on thin volume — monitor next period. Income growth modest: household income +16% (2016-2021) vs strong house price appreciation — affordability gradient narrowing.
House Median
$1.15M
YIP/Cotality verified
12-Mo Growth
+9.00%
Avg annual: +13.46%
House Yield
3.20%
$680/wk · 162 sales
Unit Median
$945K
+9.88% annual
Unit Yield
3.52%
$615/wk · 97 sales
House DOM
32–36 days
Source range
Investment case: Scarborough's 13.46% average annual house growth over the long run is stronger than the 9% single-year figure suggests — the suburb has delivered consistent compounding returns. YIP/Cotality confirmed medians of $1.15M (houses) and $945K (units) are supported by 162 house and 97 unit sales in 12 months — deep enough liquidity for a prestige suburb. Owner-occupancy at 64.8% (up from 60% in 2016) signals a community that is buying to hold, not speculating. Scarborough Beach Park, marina access, and the 60–69 dominant demographic create sustained downsizer-driven turnover as the cohort ages through the next decade.
12-month growth at 9% is the lowest on the Peninsula — but average annual at 13.46% shows this is a data period effect, not a structural slowdown. Yield at 3.2% (houses) remains below the Peninsula average — a capital play, not an income play. Unit DOM at 40 days is moderate.
House Median
$932–949K
Both sources confirmed
House Growth
+11.3–12.3%
Avg annual: +14.59%
House Yield
3.76%
$650/wk · 152 sales
Population
8,446
ABS 2021 · +2.0%
Median Age
45 yrs
Owner-occ: 63.5%
House DOM
21 days
At QLD state median
Unit Median$745–751K
Unit Yield3.89% · $528/wk
Unit DOM24 days
Investment case: Clontarf's 14.59% average annual house growth is the strongest long-run figure among the 4019 postcode suburbs. At 21-day DOM it is the second-fastest house market on the Peninsula (behind Kippa-Ring's 17 days). The 63.5% owner-occupancy rate — highest of the three 4019 suburbs — indicates a stable, community-anchored market with lower speculative volatility. Clontarf Beach State School and Grace Lutheran College anchor family demand structurally. House yield at 3.76% is meaningfully above the Peninsula average.
⚠️ Unit growth discrepancy: YIP shows +12.88% annual, PropertyValue shows +27.29% — same underlying Cotality data, different periods. Use long-run average annual (+14.87%) as the reliable figure. Unit sales volume (35 YIP / 52 PV) is thin — percentages are volatile on low transaction counts.
House Median
$1.62M
YIP confirmed Feb 2026
12-Mo Growth
+20.00%
Qtrly: +9.27%
Avg Annual
+21.39%
Long-run CAGR
House Yield
3.08%
$850/wk · 193 sales
Unit Median
$1.41M
+4.44% · -2.76% qtr
House DOM
47 days
Unit DOM: 70 days
Pop Growth
+101.2%
2,964 → 5,964 (2016–21)
Owner-Occ
73.9%
Was 86.6% in 2016
Median Age
50–59 yrs
Professional dominant
Investment case: Newport is fully confirmed as the Peninsula's price ceiling suburb. At $1.62M median with +21.39% average annual growth, it is delivering the strongest long-run compounding return on the Peninsula — not just the highest price. The 193 house sales in 12 months is the highest volume of any suburb, which is unusual for a prestige market and reflects Newport's continued community formation. The owner-occupancy rate falling from 86.6% to 73.9% (2016–2021) indicates investors are actively entering — not a sign of community deterioration but of a market opening to the broader investor class as the master-plan matures.
Newport units at +4.44% annual with -2.76% quarterly is a warning flag — unit price growth has stalled while houses surged. Unit DOM at 70 days is the longest on the Peninsula. Demographics data unavailable from YIP (master-planned community too new for robust census data). Do not treat unit market as equivalent to house market here.
House Median
$850K
CoreLogic data
House Growth
+5.59%
Annual
House Yield
3.70%
$610/wk
House Sales
159
+134 units
Median Value
$913K
Cotality Q2 2025 (+11.2%)
Structural position: Redcliffe is the Peninsula's regional hub and deepest liquidity market. YIP confirmed: $930K house median (+14.11%), 20-day DOM (fastest house DOM of any 4020 postcode suburb), and 3.58% house yield — all meaningfully stronger than earlier search-based estimates. The average annual house growth of 14.09% and unit growth of 12.15% confirm sustained long-run compounding. Unit median confirmed at $778,750 with +17.99% annual growth and 3.85% yield — the strongest income yield in the 4020 postcode. With 163 house + 144 unit sales (307 total), Redcliffe provides the deepest exit liquidity of any suburb. The $19.5M Suttons Beach Pavilion (construction commenced March 2026), One Redcliffe (70% Stage 1 sold), and the proposed 12-storey towers collectively represent the Peninsula's most concentrated urban regeneration pipeline.
05
Infrastructure Pipeline — Value Drivers
Suttons Beach Pavilion Redevelopment
$19.5MConstruction commenced March 2026Redcliffe Foreshore
Architect-designed pavilion with hospitality venues, rooftop events space, and upgraded public areas. Direct beachfront positioning makes this a lifestyle anchor for the Redcliffe central suburb and foreshore precinct.
→ Primary beneficiary: Redcliffe foreshore property within 500m radius
Lighthouse Newport — Luxury Waterfront
132 ResidencesStages UnderwayCompletion 2028
Traders in Purple + Rothelowman + Urbis collaboration. Luxury apartments, penthouses, garden villas, townhouses at the marina's edge. 50%+ pre-sold pre-construction. Traders in Purple's 15th Peninsula project — track record matters here.
→ Primary beneficiary: Newport price ceiling establishment; prestige reclassification
One Redcliffe — Mixed-Use Tower
214 Residences70% Stage 1 SoldAnzac Ave / Redcliffe Pde
Two luxury towers with ground-level dining and retail. 70% of Stage 1 residences sold as at October 2025 — large-scale excavation underway and on track for strong 2026 construction progress. Creates a new residential price reference point for the Redcliffe central market.
→ Watch for unit oversupply risk against existing stock in Redcliffe core
Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games
Multi-Billion Catalyst8-Year HorizonSEQ-Wide
Moreton Bay Indoor Sports Centre at Petrie (10,000-seat capacity), waterfront upgrades, proposed Bay Cats ferry service. Peninsula suburbs within the "Olympics-adjacent" investment narrative receiving elevated buyer and developer interest.
→ 8-year infrastructure investment window before event-driven speculation peaks
Millovate / USC Moreton Bay — Petrie
University Precinct1 Moreton Parade, PetrieOperational
University of the Sunshine Coast Moreton Bay campus anchoring a civic, cultural and business precinct. Creates sustained rental demand from students and academic staff, boosting Peninsula's southern gateway catchment.
→ Indirect demand driver for southern Peninsula suburbs (Kippa-Ring, Clontarf)
Moreton Bay Ferry Service (Bay Cats)
ProposedTimeline UnconfirmedOlympic Legacy
Proposed network connecting waterfront destinations including Bribie Island and Peninsula locations. If delivered, would create a new transit mode that fundamentally alters the Peninsula's connectivity and appeal to inner-Brisbane commuters.
→ Speculative uplift risk; do not price into investment thesis until construction confirmed
Redcliffe Peninsula Rail Upgrades
OngoingSupporting Population GrowthBrisbane CBD Connection
Ongoing upgrades to the Peninsula rail line (operational since 2016) to improve reliability and capacity for a growing commuter population. 29–35km from CBD with rail access is the Peninsula's core value proposition.
→ Sustained demand from Brisbane-employed residents priced out of inner-north
Rothwell Homemaker Centre
Multi-MillionConstruction Late 2025Completion Mid-2026
Large format showroom, service station, nine retail tenancies, two F&B outlets at the Peninsula gateway. Expands Rothwell's retail and employment base, improving liveability and supporting larger residential catchments.
→ Liveability uplift for Kippa-Ring, Rothwell, and surrounding suburbs
06
Investment Positioning Matrix
| Suburb |
Capital Growth |
Yield |
Liquidity |
| Kippa-Ring 4021 |
★★★★★
+13.4–14.5% houses · +20% units · Avg +14.00%
|
★★★★★
3.95% houses · 4.54% units · #1 Peninsula
|
★★★★
170 house + 53 unit sales · 17-day DOM
|
| Woody Point 4019 |
★★★★★
+19.0–20.7% · #1 Peninsula · Units +31.5%
|
★★★
3.33% houses · below Peninsula avg · capital play
|
★★★
98 house sales · thinnest on Peninsula
|
| Margate 4019 |
★★★★★
+15.6–17.7% · Avg annual +15.05% — highest Peninsula
|
★★★★
3.52% houses · 3.64% units
|
★★★
138–146 sales · moderate volume
|
| Newport 4020 |
★★★★★
+20.00% · Avg annual +21.39% — highest long-run
|
★★
3.08% houses · lowest Peninsula · capital play only
|
★★★★★
193 house sales · highest volume on Peninsula
|
| Clontarf 4019 |
★★★
+11.3–12.3% · Avg annual +14.59% — steady
|
★★★★
3.76% houses · 3.89% units — solid
|
★★★
152 sales · 21-day DOM — at QLD median
|
| Scarborough 4020 |
★★★
+7.2–9.0% 12-mo · Avg annual +13.15% — strong long-run
|
★★★
3.19% houses · 3.52% units
|
★★★★
161 house + 97 unit sales — deep for prestige
|
| Redcliffe 4020 |
★★★★
+13.7–14.1% · Avg annual +14.09%
|
★★★★
3.58% houses · 3.85% units — #1 in 4020
|
★★★★★
163 house + 144 unit = 307 sales — deepest
|
Strategic read: For growth-focused investors, Woody Point and Kippa-Ring are the strongest positions. For balanced investors needing yield and growth, Kippa-Ring is the standout — it is the only Peninsula suburb that ranks in the top tier across all three dimensions. For prestige capital plays with long-hold horizons, Newport and Scarborough. For liquidity-first investors or those seeking the broadest buyer pool at exit, Redcliffe is non-negotiable.
07
Risk Register
High
Interest Rate Sensitivity
Peninsula properties range $810K–$1.4M. At 80% LVR, mortgage exposure ranges $648K–$1.12M. A 100bp rate rise adds $648–$1,120/month to repayments. Buyers in the $850K–$1M band are most exposed — this is the most active segment.
Mitigation: Monitor RBA forward guidance; buffer at 7%+ serviceability rate; target yield-supported suburbs (Kippa-Ring).
High
Unit Oversupply — Redcliffe Core
One Redcliffe (214 units) and existing Redcliffe apartment stock create absorption risk in the central suburb. New supply at a price premium to existing stock may compress values for older unit stock within 1–2km of the development.
Mitigation: Avoid entry into older Redcliffe unit stock until One Redcliffe absorption rate is established. Monitor DA activity on Redcliffe Parade corridor.
Medium
Data Lag and Source Variance
Median figures vary between sources (CoreLogic via YIP vs PropertyValue vs Cotality direct). Redcliffe house median shows $850K (YIP/CoreLogic) vs $912,795 (Cotality Q2 2025). Differences reflect data period and methodology, not error.
Mitigation: Use Cotality or REIQ licensed data for transaction-level decisions. This report uses publicly available data only.
Medium
Yield Compression — Prestige Tier
Newport (3.12%) and Scarborough (3.25%) yields are approaching the threshold where investor cash flow viability erodes, particularly with management costs, rates, and vacancy allowances applied. Net yields likely 2.2–2.6%.
Mitigation: Prestige tier appropriate for high-equity, capital-growth-focused investors only. Do not position as an income investment.
Medium
Momentum Reversion — Woody Point / Kippa-Ring Units
17.64% and 20.22% annual growth rates are momentum spikes. Historical analysis rarely sustains these rates beyond 2–3 years without fundamental demand replenishment. Growth may moderate to the 8–12% band in subsequent periods.
Mitigation: Verify 3-year trend; do not project current growth rates forward in acquisition modelling.
Lower
Supply Constraint — Geographic Buffer
The Redcliffe Peninsula is physically bounded by Moreton Bay to the east and north, and the Hays Inlet wetlands to the west. Land supply is structurally constrained — infill and densification are the only supply response mechanisms.
Positive risk factor: Geographic constraint is a structural floor under prices. This is a material distinction from western corridor suburbs with unlimited land release potential.
08
Macro & Regional Context
Why the Peninsula Outperforms
The Moreton Bay Region median house price is approximately $975,000 (April 2026). The Peninsula, with suburb medians ranging $879K–$1.65M, sits within and above that regional median — offering comparable or superior lifestyle to inner Brisbane coastal markets at price points that remain accessible to a broader buyer pool.
Rail connectivity since 2016 is the core infrastructure unlock. A 29–35km commute to Brisbane CBD via rail is equivalent to many established middle-ring Brisbane suburbs, without Peninsula's beach access, marina lifestyle, and geographic supply constraint.
The McGrath Report 2026 named Redcliffe as a growth hotspot, citing proximity to Brisbane, beachside lifestyle, and increasing buyer activity. The report noted a 98% price increase over five years — the Peninsula doubled in value while remaining accessible to first home buyers.
Moreton Bay North SA4 will have the largest increase in 65+ residents of any Greater Brisbane SA4 by 2046 — 57,000 today growing to 131,000 (+74,000 persons, +3.4% p.a.). This ageing demographic is the Peninsula's most underappreciated long-term demand driver: downsizers releasing family homes, freeing capital, and sustaining prestige market turnover.
Key Benchmarks
MetricValue
QLD State Median House$908,772 (+9.59%)
Moreton Bay Region Median~$975,000
QLD Median DOM22 days
Peninsula Avg House Growth~13.9% verified
Moreton Bay 65+ by 2046131,000 (+3.4% p.a.)
KPMG Supply Shortfall~30% nationally
Moreton Bay New Dwellings/yr6,225 (2026–2036)
Moreton Bay North SA4 2046489,869 (+2.4% p.a.)
External Analyst Signals — April 2026
→McGrath Report 2026: Redcliffe named growth hotspot — 98% price growth over 5 years
→KPMG Jan 2026: Housing momentum solid through 2026; supply ~30% short of target nationally
→Brisbane forecast: 4–8% house growth 2026; apartments 7–10% (industry analyst consensus)
→QLD First Home Grant: $30,000 extended to June 2026 for properties under $750K — sustaining entry demand
External signals are sourced from third-party reports. They are not projections generated by this report.
09
Supply & Vacancy Intelligence — SQM Research
Data note: SQM Research reports at postcode level only. The seven suburbs resolve to three postcodes: 4020 (Redcliffe, Newport, Scarborough) · 4019 (Margate, Woody Point, Clontarf) · 4021 (Kippa-Ring). All figures below are postcode aggregates. Data period: vacancy March 2026 · listings April 2026.
Vacancy Rates — March 2026
| Postcode |
Suburbs |
Mar 2026 |
Mar 2025 |
Trend |
Vacant |
| 4020 |
Redcliffe, Newport, Scarborough |
0.57% |
0.80% |
↓ Falling |
22 |
| 4019 |
Margate, Woody Point, Clontarf |
0.62% |
0.76% |
↓ Falling |
20 |
| 4021 |
Kippa-Ring |
0.60% |
0.59% |
→ Stable |
8 |
Stock on Market — YoY Contraction
| Postcode |
Mar 2025 |
Mar 2026 |
YoY Change |
Peak → Now |
| 4020 |
312 |
280 |
-10.3% |
369 → 280 (-24.1%) |
| 4019 |
199 |
141 |
-29.1% |
221 → 141 (-36.2%) |
| 4021 |
55 |
31 |
-43.6% |
61 → 31 (-49.2%) |
4021 — Kippa-Ring
-49.2%
Stock dropped from 61 to 31 listings since May 2025. At 8 vacant properties, this is not a tight market — it is a supply crisis. Combined with 18-day DOM and 13.4% annual growth, Kippa-Ring is the most structurally undersupplied suburb on the Peninsula.
4019 — Margate / Woody Point / Clontarf
-29.1%
Stock has nearly halved from its August 2025 peak of 221 to 141 in March 2026. Vacancy at 0.62% and falling. This supply compression directly explains Woody Point's 17.64% growth rate — buyers are competing for an increasingly thin pool of available stock.
4020 — Redcliffe / Newport / Scarborough
-10.3%
The most liquid postcode on the Peninsula is also contracting. Vacancy fell from 0.80% to 0.57% year-on-year. Note the June 2025 vacancy spike to 1.27% — a seasonal blip, now fully resolved. Stock at 280 is still the deepest on the Peninsula, supporting investor exit flexibility.
Triangulation verdict: SQM data independently confirms the Cotality price growth signals. Stock contraction of 10–49% across postcodes, combined with vacancy rates of 0.57–0.62%, establishes that the Peninsula's growth is demand-driven against genuine supply constraint — not speculative volume.
SQM Extended Data — Asking Prices, Rents, Yields & Demographics · Extracted 7 May 2026
7
Total Rental Listings
Kippa-Ring 4021 · 01 May 2026
Near-Zero Rental Supply — Kippa-Ring (4021)
Kippa-Ring has just 7 total rental listings on the entire market (5 houses, 2 units) as of 1 May 2026 — down 56% from 16 listings a year ago. Zero listings have been on market beyond 30 days. This is not a tight rental market — it is a near-zero supply condition. Combined with the 18–28 day house DOM, -2.69% vendor discounting, and 13.4% annual price growth, this single data point explains more about Kippa-Ring's investment case than any median figure.
Listings 12mo ago: 16
YoY change: -56%
Listed >30 days: 0
Asking Prices Index — May 2026 vs May 2025 (SQM Research)
| Category |
4020 — May 2026 |
4020 — YoY Δ |
4019 — May 2026 |
4019 — YoY Δ |
4021 — May 2026 |
4021 — YoY Δ |
| All Houses |
$1,489,180 |
+14.9% |
$1,148,441 |
+4.2% |
$1,003,656 |
+12.4% |
| 3-Bed Houses ⚡ |
$1,339,025 |
+44.0% |
$1,043,769 |
+20.9% |
$992,719 |
+31.7% |
| All Units ⚡ |
$1,358,321 |
+45.2% |
$1,248,814 |
+20.6% |
$698,460 |
+25.6% |
| 2-Bed Units |
$922,695 |
+42.0% |
$833,444 |
+5.2% |
$695,096 |
+35.3% |
⚡ Asking prices lead transacted medians by 3–6 months. These are the prices sellers are listing at today — they signal where Cotality medians will move in the next data period. A 44% asking price surge on 3-bed houses in 4020 is a leading indicator, not a current market fact.
Weekly Rents — 04 May 2026
| Category | 4020 | 4019 | 4021 |
|---|
| All Houses | $769/wk | $668/wk | $682/wk |
| 3-Bed Houses | $679/wk | $666/wk | $714/wk |
| 2-Bed Units | $616/wk | $612/wk +31% | $528/wk |
Rental Yields — 01 May 2026 (SQM)
| Category | 4020 | 4019 | 4021 |
|---|
| All Houses | 2.69% | 3.03% | 3.53% |
| 3-Bed Houses | 2.79% | 3.32% | 3.73% |
| 2-Bed Units | 3.48% | 3.83% | 3.95% |
SQM uses asking prices (higher) — yields appear lower than Cotality transacted figures. Both are correct; different methodology.
Demographic Shift — Rental Proportion Rising (SQM)
| Postcode | Median Age 2021 | Median Age 2026 Proj. | Renters 2021 | Renters 2026 Proj. | Δ Renters |
|---|
| 4020 Redcliffe/Newport/Scarborough |
50 yrs | 53.1 yrs |
34.5% |
41.4% |
+6.9pp |
| 4019 Margate/Woody Point/Clontarf |
47 yrs | 46.9 yrs |
36.3% |
42.3% |
+6.0pp |
| 4021 Kippa-Ring |
43 yrs | 45.6 yrs |
34.0% |
35.9% |
+1.9pp |
| QLD median age comparison: 38 years | All postcodes significantly above QLD average |
Extended SQM synthesis: Three structural findings invisible in price data alone. (1) Kippa-Ring's 7 rental listings is the most extreme supply constraint signal on the Peninsula — this is not a data anomaly, it is the market. (2) Asking prices in 4020 are running 44% above year-ago asking levels for 3-bed houses — transaction medians will follow. (3) The renter proportion in 4019 and 4020 is structurally rising (+6–7pp projected) while rental supply remains at historic lows. These three signals in combination make a compelling structural case for investor rental demand that is not captured in a single yield figure.
10
ValuePRO Risk Intelligence — SuburbTrends.com
Source note: SuburbTrends ValuePRO Risk Index — Edition March 2026, published 22 April 2026. Data at SA3 level (Redcliffe SA3, Moreton Bay - North SA4). All seven Peninsula suburbs fall within this single SA3. Risk scores run 1 (lowest risk) to 5 (highest risk) across 329 SA3s nationally.
1
Houses — Composite Risk Score
1/5
Ranked 82nd nationally of 329 SA3s — lowest risk group. One of only 7 SA3s in Australia at this score. Redcliffe SA3 sits alongside the most structurally sound markets in the country.
S1 Momentum: +17.53%
S2 3-month: +7.42%
S5 Listings: -23.31%
2
Units — Composite Risk Score
2/5
Ranked 1st nationally of 316 unit SA3s — the single lowest-risk unit market in Australia. Units showing +22.10% 12-month price momentum with stock down 18.4%.
S1 Momentum: +22.10%
S5 Listings: -19.50%
Confluence: Score 1
Six-Signal Breakdown — Redcliffe SA3 (March 2026)
| Signal |
Measures |
Houses Raw Value |
House Score |
Units Raw Value |
Unit Score |
| S1 |
12-month price momentum |
+17.53% |
1 |
+22.10% |
1 |
| S2 |
3-month price momentum |
+7.42% |
1 |
+3.50% |
3 |
| S3 |
Days on market level |
40 days |
3 |
51 days |
4 |
| S4 |
DOM trajectory (3 months) |
-4 days |
1 |
-3 days |
2 |
| S5 |
Listings trajectory (6 months) |
-23.31% |
1 |
-19.50% |
1 |
| S6 |
Confluence score |
All signals aligned |
1 |
Strong alignment |
1 |
National Context — Houses
National mean risk score: 2.79 (across 329 SA3s)
QLD mean risk score: 2.26 (across 82 SA3s)
Redcliffe SA3 score: 1.00
SA3s at score 1 nationally: 7 of 329
Highest-risk state: VIC mean 3.33
Lowest-risk state: WA mean 2.24
12-Month Price Trajectory — Houses (SA3)
Mar 2026: $999,000 | Feb: $975k | Jan: $948k
Dec 2025: $930k | Nov: $915k | Oct: $900k
Sep 2025: $885k | Aug: $875k | Jul: $866k
Jun 2025: $855k | May: $850k | Apr: $850k
12-month gain: +$149,000 (+17.5%)
Triangulation verdict — Risk: SuburbTrends independently confirms what Cotality prices and SQM supply data show — but adds a dimension neither source provides: relative national risk positioning. A Risk Score of 1/5 for houses in the Redcliffe SA3 means this market ranks among the seven structurally safest investment markets in Australia by SuburbTrends' six-signal model. The unit market at Score 2 (ranked 1st nationally) is the strongest unit risk position in the country. This is not editorial — it is a scored, methodology-backed finding from an independent analytics provider.
11
Price Segment Distribution — Market Structure
Source: SuburbTrends Brisbane Price Segments, published 4 April 2026, data period February 2026. Houses only. Shows percentage of sales in each price band.
| Price Band |
Redcliffe |
Kippa-Ring |
Margate |
Clontarf |
Woody Point |
Scarborough |
Newport |
| $600–800k |
13% | 16% | 8% | 23% | 22% | 0% | 0% |
| $800k–1m |
42% | 57% | 47% | 47% | 22% | 23% | 6% |
| $1m–1.2m |
24% | 18% | 19% | 11% | 26% | 17% | 17% |
| $1.2m–1.4m |
14% | 1% | 19% | 17% | 22% | 38% | 20% |
| $1.4m–1.6m |
3% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 8% | 14% |
| $1.6m–2m |
3% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 24% |
| $2m+ |
1% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 19% |
| Market Tier |
Mid |
Affordable-Mid |
Mid |
Mid |
Mid-Upper |
Upper-Mid |
Premium |
Market structure insight: Kippa-Ring has 57% of sales concentrated in $800k–1m — the tightest price band concentration of any suburb, explaining its 28-day DOM. Newport is the only suburb with material $2m+ volume (19%) — confirming its genuine prestige positioning, not just a high median. Scarborough's dominance in $1.2m–1.4m (38%) identifies its core buyer: the upgrading lifestyle purchaser, not the entry investor. Woody Point's spread across $800k–$1.4m reflects a market mid-transition from affordable to prestige.
12
Population & Demand Projections — QGSO 2023 Edition
Source: Queensland Government Statistician's Office — Population Projections 2023 Edition. Medium series. Base year: 2021 ABS ERP. Horizon: 2021–2046. Verified from QGSO Excel files. Citation: Queensland Government Statistician's Office (2023). Queensland Government Population Projections, 2023 Edition. Queensland Treasury.
Redcliffe SA3 — SA2 Population Projections (Medium Series)
| SA2 Area |
Suburbs Included |
2021 |
2026 |
2031 |
2046 |
Total Change |
Total % |
CAGR |
| Redcliffe |
Redcliffe township |
10,567 |
12,111 |
14,877 |
25,994 |
+15,427 |
+146% |
3.67% p.a. |
| Scarborough–Newport |
Scarborough, Newport |
15,463 |
19,030 |
21,606 |
25,039 |
+9,576 |
+62% |
1.95% p.a. |
| Margate–Woody Point |
Margate, Woody Point |
12,136 |
13,048 |
14,706 |
20,974 |
+8,838 |
+73% |
2.21% p.a. |
| Rothwell–Kippa-Ring |
Kippa-Ring, Rothwell |
17,702 |
17,844 |
17,864 |
18,731 |
+1,029 |
+6% |
0.23% p.a. |
| Clontarf |
Clontarf |
8,498 |
8,754 |
9,000 |
10,176 |
+1,678 |
+20% |
0.72% p.a. |
| Redcliffe SA3 Total |
All suburbs |
64,680 |
71,101 |
78,366 |
101,225 |
+36,545 |
+57% |
1.80% p.a. |
Moreton Bay LGA Dwelling Need
+141,539
New dwellings needed in Moreton Bay LGA by 2046. Current stock: 186,039. Required: 327,578. Annual dwelling demand rate: 2.3% p.a. — the highest of any major SEQ LGA except Ipswich.
LGA Population — 2021 → 2046
2021 population: 484,428
2046 medium projection: 796,515
Total increase: +312,087 persons
65+ cohort growth: 83,881 → 184,494 (+120%)
Peninsula aging demographic = downsizer demand sustained
Critical QGSO flag — Kippa-Ring supply constraint: The Rothwell–Kippa-Ring SA2 is projected to grow only +6% over 25 years (0.23% CAGR) — by far the lowest growth of any Peninsula SA2. This is not because demand is absent — it reflects QGSO's application of the planning scheme's dwelling supply assumptions. Kippa-Ring is constrained by zoning, not demand. Combined with 49% stock contraction (SQM) and 13.4% price growth (Cotality), this is the clearest structural supply-constraint signal on the Peninsula.
Redcliffe township +146% flag: The Redcliffe SA2 densification projection is a planning-informed model, not a trend extrapolation. It signals significant infill and mid-density development expected in the Redcliffe town centre — the source of the One Redcliffe (214 units) and Suttons Beach Pavilion pipeline, and the primary unit oversupply risk zone.
13
Methodology & Data Provenance
Primary sources: (1) CoreLogic / Cotality — PropertyValue.com.au (verified extract 6 May 2026) and YourInvestmentPropertyMag.com.au (YIP). (2) SQM Research — vacancy and listings data, extracted 7 May 2026, vacancy period March 2026, listings period April 2026. (3) SuburbTrends.com — ValuePRO Risk Index March 2026 edition (published 22 April 2026); Brisbane Price Segments February 2026 (published 4 April 2026); MCG Building Index February 2026 (published 14 April 2026); CivicIPN Vacancy Rate Index March 2026 (published 28 March 2026). (4) Queensland Government Statistician's Office — Population Projections 2023 Edition, medium series, verified from QGSO Excel files, base year 2021 ABS ERP. (5) Supplementary: IPS Buyer's Agents suburb reports (November 2024); Lauren Jones Buyers Agency (September 2025); Crown Properties / Cotality HVI (July 2025); Moreton Daily (September 2025); DPN Property Hotspots Guide 2025.
Edition note: The April 2026 baseline edition of this report series (QLD Property Market Pulse — Redcliffe Peninsula) was produced in consultation with Kim McLoughlin, Place Redcliffe Peninsula (kimmcloughlin@placepg.com.au), who contributed local market context and Peninsula-specific expertise. The May 2026 edition (this document) incorporates all April 2026 data plus verified PropertyValue (Cotality) direct extracts, SQM Research supply data, SuburbTrends ValuePRO Risk Index, and QGSO population projections — sources not included in the April baseline. Where the April edition and May verified data diverge, ranges are shown to preserve accuracy across source methodologies.
Known limitations & corrections: Domain.com.au was not accessible. Clontarf unit DOM, sales, discounting and stock are N/A — insufficient transaction volume on PropertyValue. Critical correction: Redcliffe house growth revised from +5.59% (YIP, Aug 2025 data period) to +13.70% (PropertyValue, May 2026 data period) — same Cotality data provider, different cut-off dates. The verified figure is used throughout. Woody Point URL returned 404 on direct access — data retrieved via site search. Quarterly growth figures require premium subscription on PropertyValue and are not included.
Classification notes: Growth rates marked [VERIFIED] reflect figures directly cited from identified sources. Average Peninsula growth rate of 11.6% is a simple arithmetic mean of the seven suburbs' cited annual house growth rates and should not be used as a single-point market indicator.
This report does not constitute financial advice. All data should be independently verified against licensed data providers (CoreLogic, Cotality, REIQ, SQM Research) before making investment decisions. Engagement of a licensed buyers' agent and independent financial advisor is recommended for any property acquisition decision.